A Foreign Policy Suggestion that Will Go Nowhere
Why
is Iran our perpetual enemy? Is it because we once subverted their democracy
and installed a dictatorial government in its place? Is it because we've waged
economic war on them for decades and previously encouraged their neighbor to
wage real war on them to the tune of a million dead? Is it because they somehow
made us shoot down one of their airliners? I know it's human nature to find it
hard to forgive someone for the sins you've committed against them, but maybe
we could try just this once.
A
thought experiment: what if, instead of endlessly proposing ways to fence in
Iran, we made our goal a real normalization of relations? Instead of suggesting
that some sort of uneasy truce could be maintained by slightly lessening
sanctions, we looked forward to an era when there weren't any sanctions at all?
So long as we treat Iran as our version of the Great Satan, we don't have very
much leverage for serious diplomacy. If a genuine peace were in prospect,
Tehran might be much more amenable to a deal about its relationship with
Hezbollah, for example, if it didn't need to hang on to Hezbollah as a
bargaining chip in an endless cold war—the idea that the Iranians have some
tremendous interest in the Palestinian issue is very dubious to me. Of course
they don't like Israel's policies—almost the entire planet doesn't like
Israel's policies—but I've yet to meet a Persian who really gave a damn about
what was going on a couple of countries away. So long as the Israelis keep
threatening to nuke 'em, however, they have to be interested.
Of
course any prospect of peace will require keeping the Israelis under control.
Netanyahu, et. al. are never going to stop banging the war drum because the
ongoing artificial crisis provides essential cover for the de facto annexation
of the West Bank, a process that will take many years to complete. We don't
need Israel to sign on, though. We just need them not to panic and push the
button—coming up on one hundred years after the outbreak of World War I, we
need to remember what mischief minor powers can cause by vanity and
miscalculation.